TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 3:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the New Haven vs Robert Morris college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. If Robert Morris wins by exceeding the specified point margin, the corresponding 'Yes' outcome is triggered for markets where Robert Morris is the favored team by that margin. Conversely, if New Haven wins by exceeding its specified margin, the respective 'Yes' outcome applies. Postponements that commence within 48 hours of the original schedule preserve market openness for resolution per the final result. Games not starting within this window resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of timing changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to express their own probabilities based on information and analysis. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that prediction market traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the event. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, but are derived through different mechanisms and influenced by different factors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the New Haven vs Robert Morris spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded, and those who misjudge the market risk losing capital. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and accurate assessment of the event's outcome, based on the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the New Haven vs Robert Morris game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of the game. Traders will then be paid out or have their positions adjusted based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual spread. The platform ensures a transparent and verifiable resolution process, adhering to established standards for event outcomes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the New Haven or Robert Morris teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts impacting game conditions, or even public sentiment shifts based on expert analysis could all play a role. Unexpected announcements about player availability or team dynamics are also potential catalysts. Monitoring these signals can help traders refine their predictions and adjust their positions accordingly.