TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 9:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets determine outcomes based on the margin of victory for either New England or Miami, considering only the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, without extra time or penalties.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential if New England or Miami wins the match scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Two markets focus on New England winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while the other two focus on Miami winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Kalshi states it is not affiliated with the Governing League, and all trademarks, logos, and brand names are property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Often, you’ll find that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value depending on the specific line and the market’s assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, which leads to dynamic price fluctuations. The more a particular spread is traded, the more confidence the market has in that outcome. This creates a real-time assessment of the game's likely result.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the New England versus Miami game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL, and will reflect the actual point difference between the two teams at the end of the game. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on the established rules of the sport. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, such as the quarterback or star receiver, would likely cause a shift in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted, can also influence the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also move prices. Finally, significant betting activity – a large influx of volume on one particular spread – could signal increased confidence in a specific outcome and cause the market to react accordingly.