TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks rushing performance in an upcoming football game, with payouts scaling based on yardage achieved by individual players. Contracts reward higher yardage with progressively larger returns, creating a dynamic link between on-field statistics and financial outcomes.
Contracts pay out based on the rushing yards accumulated by designated players during the specified game, following a tiered schedule where each 10-yard increment increases the payout according to a cubic function capped at $1.00. The payout formula adjusts raw yardage values into scaled returns using floor division and cubic scaling, with negative yardage resulting in zero payout for Yes positions. No positions receive the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout, ensuring total returns sum to $1.00 per contract pair. All markets resolve to Yes upon completion, regardless of payout structure.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices fluctuate based on supply and demand; if more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of its corresponding contract will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the traders on the platform.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage totals for the New England vs Miami game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, official statistics published by the NFL. The market will determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual rushing yardage exceeds the levels specified in each contract. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could affect the running game. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding play-calling strategies could also influence trading activity. Finally, late-breaking news about defensive matchups or player availability will likely cause shifts in prices as traders adjust their expectations based on the latest information.