TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks rushing yard milestones for specific players in an upcoming football game. The outcome depends on whether designated players achieve particular rushing yard thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All markets share a common structure where contracts are designated as protected. If a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game's kickoff unless the player meets the required rushing yards, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies exclusively to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime performance. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price of contracts predicting that outcome will rise. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially closer to the event, as they incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information, analysis, and their own risk tolerance, which drives the price fluctuations. The market depth indicates the amount of buying and selling interest at various price points, providing insight into the potential for price movement.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official rushing yardage totals for the New England versus Miami game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will be used to determine the total rushing yards achieved by both teams, and this figure will be compared to the contract values to determine payouts. Traders holding contracts predicting the actual rushing yardage will receive a payout, while those holding contracts predicting a different outcome will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could affect the running game. News about coaching strategies or potential changes to offensive line personnel could also influence trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking information regarding player availability or team tactics could lead to substantial shifts in the price of contracts within this market.