TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:59 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific New England Patriots players in an upcoming football game against Miami. Each market focuses on the number of receptions a particular player achieves during the match. Payouts for 'Yes' contracts increase with the number of receptions up to a set limit, while 'No' contracts pay the remainder of the total stake.
The event consists of three separate scalar markets, each tied to a different New England Patriots player’s reception count in the game against Miami on Nov 1, 2026. For each market, 'Yes' contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the designated player, with payouts capped at $1.00 and limited to a maximum of 20 receptions. 'No' contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the 'Yes' payout. Payouts are proportional to each contract holder’s position size. For instance, if a player records eight receptions, the 'Yes' payout would be $0.40 and the 'No' payout $0.60; eleven receptions would result in a 'Yes' payout of $0.55 and a 'No' payout of $0.45, while zero receptions would yield a 'Yes' payout of $0.00 and a 'No' payout of $1.00. All markets resolve independently based on the actual reception counts for Caleb Douglas, Hunter Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the aggregated forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more a particular outcome is favored by traders, the higher its price will be, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations in real-time.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final reception totals for the players in this market will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official NFL statistics released after the game concludes, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will be able to see the final results and payouts on Kalshi following the official data release.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could shift expectations and influence trading activity. A key player being ruled out due to injury would likely cause a substantial movement in the odds for their teammates. Unexpected positive or negative news about a player’s performance or role within the offense could also lead to significant price fluctuations. Keep an eye on team practice reports and expert analysis for potential catalysts.