TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players achieve a certain minimum distance on their longest completed pass during a football game between two teams. Each market focuses on a different player's performance, evaluating if they reach or exceed a set yardage threshold in a single play.
The event evaluates multiple individual player markets to determine if each specified player records a longest reception exceeding a defined yardage threshold in the New England vs Miami Pro Football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. For each player market, if the athlete records a reception longer than the stated threshold, that specific market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule states that if a player is active for the team but does not take any snaps, the market settles to the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolution is based solely on the longest reception actually recorded during the game. These provisions ensure that markets are resolved fairly, accounting for player participation and in-game performance metrics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by analysts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public bias or promotional considerations, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both prediction market prices and sportsbook odds will adjust. It’s common to see convergence as the event approaches, although discrepancies can persist due to differing market dynamics and risk assessments.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player with the longest reception, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning outcome. The official NFL game statistics will be used to verify the longest reception, and the market will settle based on that data. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key wide receivers or tight ends, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence the likelihood of long pass attempts. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments could also play a role. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to significant movement in the NFL longest reception market.