TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific quarterbacks achieve various passing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. The outcome depends entirely on the actual performance of the named players during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on whether the named quarterback achieves the specified passing yard threshold during the entire game, including overtime. Contracts are designated as protected: if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the player meets the yardage requirement, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yard totals for the New England vs Miami game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yardage for each quarterback will be sourced from official NFL statistics. The market will then settle based on which outcome—representing a specific passing yard range—accurately reflects the actual result. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will not.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding quarterback injuries for either team, changes in weather forecasts for the game day, or adjustments to defensive strategies could all cause significant shifts in prices. Unexpected announcements about player availability, even minor ones, can also impact the market. Additionally, large-volume trades by individual participants can create short-term volatility. Monitoring these signals and events can help traders make more informed decisions as the game approaches.