TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates various scoring thresholds for the first quarter of an upcoming football game. Each market focuses on whether the combined points scored by both teams will exceed a specific number by the end of the first quarter, offering different levels of difficulty for prediction.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by New England and Miami during the first quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from 3.5 to 24.5 points, and resolves to 'Yes' if the combined score exceeds that threshold. No points scored after the first quarter or in any other context are considered. All markets operate independently, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. Examining these differences can reveal where the crowd believes sportsbooks may be over or underestimating the probability of certain outcomes in the New England vs Miami 1st quarter.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final total score in the first quarter. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own insights, leading to dynamic price movements. The current price indicates the market's collective assessment of the likelihood of various first-quarter totals for this game.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official total score of the first quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the final total will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final score to understand the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the New England or Miami teams would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact scoring, could also shift the market. Additionally, pre-game analysis from sports analysts and any late-breaking news about team strategies could all contribute to fluctuations in the price of contracts for the New England vs Miami 1st quarter.