TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which Miami player or defensive unit will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game against New England. It includes scenarios where no touchdown is scored by Miami, providing a comprehensive view of possible outcomes for the game's initial scoring plays.
The event determines whether a specific Miami player or the team's defense scores the first touchdown in the New England vs Miami professional football game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, or if no Miami touchdown occurs at all. Each market corresponds to an individual player or the defensive unit, resolving to 'Yes' if that entity scores the first touchdown. If a listed player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes a snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined solely by whether they score the first touchdown. If no Miami touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to 'Yes,' and all player-specific markets resolve to 'No.' This structure ensures that all possible scenarios are covered, from individual player performance to the team's overall offensive success.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe an outcome is more or less likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price in this market will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering potential value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders bid to buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of the first Miami touchdown occurring. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will dynamically adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This creates a real-time, market-driven assessment of the likelihood of this event.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on identifying which team scores the first touchdown in the game. The official game records will be used to determine the outcome, and the market will settle based on that verified information. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final price of the contracts they held.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key offensive players on either team, particularly the quarterback or wide receivers, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect the likelihood of a passing or rushing touchdown. Furthermore, in-game developments during the game itself, such as early turnovers or dominant defensive plays, could cause rapid shifts in the market price as traders react to the unfolding events.