TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 8:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether either team's defensive or special teams unit scores at least one touchdown during an upcoming football game. It focuses on real plays from the full game length, including any overtime periods. The outcome depends purely on game statistics without considering player participation nuances for team-based contracts.
Both markets share identical protective settlement rules for player participation. If a player appears in the first half but not after halftime—including overtime—the contract resolves at the pre-game fair price unless they meet the touchdown requirement, in which case actual statistics apply. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and players who never participate are subject to the non-participation rule. The protection applies only to full-game contracts with 'at least' criteria. Passing touchdowns do not count toward the passer’s total, and team defense/special-teams selections settle strictly on actual touchdowns without player participation exceptions. All settlements consider the entire game duration, including overtime.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when public perception deviates from expert analysis. Comparing the two can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making, though it's important to remember they represent different types of forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations surrounding the total touchdowns scored in the upcoming game.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of touchdowns scored in the New England versus Chicago game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the result. The final price of contracts will reflect whether the actual number of touchdowns exceeded or fell short of the levels predicted by traders. This provides a clear and objective determination of the market's outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Injury reports for key offensive players on either team would be significant, as would any changes in weather forecasts that could affect the passing or running game. Unexpected news regarding team strategy or coaching decisions could also shift expectations. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could indicate a change in sentiment and cause the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these signals can help traders identify potential opportunities.