TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:39 PM EST
Kalshi
The event centers around a professional football game between two teams. A specific scoring play by either team during the match will determine a particular condition. The focus is on whether this play occurs during the game as scheduled.
If New England or Chicago record a safety in the New England vs Chicago Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect information beyond what is captured in traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and public betting patterns, but this market incorporates a wider range of insights from a diverse group of traders. While sportsbook odds are readily available, they may not fully account for factors like team morale, late-breaking news, or subtle strategic advantages. It's common to see differences between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes identify mispricings or incorporate information more quickly than sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular result, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price discovery, and traders aim to profit by identifying discrepancies between their own predictions and the market's consensus. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism driven by supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the New England vs Chicago game, as determined by official league sources. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several signals could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any major news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in coaching strategies or team dynamics could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could impact the market. Weather conditions on game day, and any pre-game reports about player availability, are also likely to be closely watched and reflected in the market's pricing.