TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:30 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track rushing performance for individual players in a specific football game, with payouts scaling based on the number of yards gained. Each player's contract value increases progressively with higher yardage thresholds, reflecting risk and reward dynamics for bettors.
Each market operates as a scalar betting structure where Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule tied to the rushing yards achieved by the specified player in the designated game. Payouts increase incrementally for every 10-yard interval, capped at $1.00 for Yes contracts and adjusted inversely for No contracts, which pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. The payout formula applies a cubic scaling to yardage values, normalized to a maximum of 200 yards, with negative yardage resulting in zero payout for Yes contracts. All markets resolve to Yes following the determination of official rushing statistics, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims affiliation with the governing league, with all trademarks remaining property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when there is significant public interest and trading volume. However, sportsbook odds are readily available and provide a useful benchmark for comparison. Discrepancies may arise due to differing opinions on player injuries, weather conditions, or strategic game plans.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions, offering insight into the potential range of rushing yards for the game.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yardage statistics from the New England versus Chicago game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final, official rushing yardage total will be used to determine which contracts settle at 100, and which settle at 0. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure a transparent and objective outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game statistics to understand the market's settlement.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to running backs or offensive linemen on either team would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that could favor a passing or rushing attack, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could shift trader sentiment and alter the price of contracts.