TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether Dawson Knox will score 2+ touchdowns in the New England vs Buffalo Pro Football game. Currently, Kalshi gives a 14.0% probability to that outcome, with Hunter Henry scoring 3+ touchdowns also at 14.0%. The market will resolve based on whether Keon Coleman scores at least 2+ touchdowns in the New England vs Buffalo Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026, as reported by the official game results. Keep a close eye on the final injury reports leading up to the Oct 4, 2026 game to assess player availability and potential impact on scoring opportunities.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player scores the required number of touchdowns during the game. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap — even if the play is nullified by a penalty — the market settles according to the actual touchdowns scored during the game. All markets are independent, and each has its own resolution criteria tied to the named player's performance. The markets cover various players from both teams, including offensive players and defensive/special teams units, each with thresholds of scoring one or more touchdowns.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective predictions of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups, and neither guarantees an accurate prediction.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. A higher price indicates a greater perceived probability, while a lower price suggests a lower probability. The market depth, or the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels, also provides insights into market confidence.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of touchdowns scored in the New England vs Buffalo game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders will be able to view the official results on Kalshi after the game concludes and the data has been verified.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game day. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the New England or Buffalo teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest unfavorable playing conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might affect traders' perceptions. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create price movements, especially if they signal a change in sentiment among informed traders.