TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track receiving yard performance for specific players in an upcoming NFL matchup. Participants bet on whether each player's yardage will trigger payouts based on a fixed rate per yard. The structure ensures balanced risk and reward for each individual player's performance.
Each market operates as a scalar betting contract where Yes positions pay $0.0025 per receiving yard accumulated by the designated player during the New England vs Buffalo game on Oct 4, 2026, up to a maximum payout of $1.00. No positions receive $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are capped at 400 yards and calculated proportionally to each holder's contract position size. For instance, 80 yards generate $0.20 for Yes and $0.80 for No, while zero yards result in $0.00 for Yes and $1.00 for No. All contracts resolve based solely on official game statistics, with Kalshi explicitly stating no affiliation with the NFL or its entities.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to balance their risk, while this market aggregates the diverse perspectives of many traders. Over time, prediction market prices tend to be more accurate forecasts of the actual outcome than traditional betting odds, although significant discrepancies can exist, especially early in the market’s life. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, such as injury reports or weather forecasts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard ranges for players in the New England vs Buffalo game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The market depth indicates how much volume is available at different price points, signaling potential support and resistance levels.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the New England vs Buffalo game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the officially recorded receiving yards for each player in the relevant receiving yard ladder. The final prices on Kalshi will reflect the actual results of the game, determining which traders correctly predicted the receiving yardage ranges.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the health of key wide receivers or tight ends on either team – injuries, illness, or changes in playing time – would likely cause price fluctuations. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be unfavorable for passing, could also shift expectations. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding offensive strategies or player matchups could also move the market. Finally, late-breaking news about defensive adjustments or player availability could influence trading activity.