TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:23 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of quarterback Drake Maye in an upcoming football game between New England and Buffalo. The outcomes depend on whether Maye achieves specific passing yard thresholds during the match. Each market corresponds to a different yardage benchmark that Maye must surpass for the bet to pay out.
The markets evaluate whether Drake Maye accumulates specified passing yard thresholds in the New England vs Buffalo Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct yardage benchmark (ranging from 150+ to 350+ yards). If Maye meets or exceeds the threshold in any of these markets, that specific market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if Maye is active for the game but does not take a snap, each market settles at its fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once Maye takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by the total passing yards he records during the game. This structure ensures that markets resolve based on actual performance once gameplay begins, while accounting for scenarios where a player is present but does not participate.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market relies purely on individuals’ willingness to buy or sell contracts based on their own analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges, as traders weigh different perspectives on the likely outcome of the game and the potential passing yardage totals.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a particular range, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information and opinions are incorporated, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the game. The current volume of $184,486 demonstrates active participation in shaping these probabilities.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage totals for the New England vs Buffalo game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yards recorded by the winning team will be used to determine which contracts pay out, based on the pre-defined ranges within this market. Traders will then receive their payouts or fulfill their obligations based on the final result. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand how the market is reacting to late-breaking news.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would be a major catalyst, as it directly affects the expected passing yardage. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence the game plan and lead to a decrease in passing attempts. Unexpected changes in coaching strategy or defensive schemes could also shift expectations. Finally, even significant betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks might cause traders to reassess their positions and adjust prices in this market.