TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory for UCLA in their college football game against Nevada. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, allowing participants to bet on how convincingly UCLA might win.
All markets resolve based on the official final point difference in the Nevada vs UCLA college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. If UCLA wins by exceeding the specified point margin for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Postponements are permitted if the game commences within 48 hours of the original start time, with resolution based on the final result. If the game does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy emerges between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that traders possess information or insights not fully incorporated into the sportsbook’s pricing. It's important to note that both represent probabilities of an outcome, but are derived from different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process leads to a market-determined price that represents the collective forecast for the Nevada vs UCLA spread.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Nevada vs UCLA game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The final spread will be the determining factor for payouts in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 31, 2026. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Nevada or UCLA teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or shifts in public perception regarding each team’s chances of winning could all contribute to fluctuations in the market price. Any significant development related to the game has the potential to move this market.