TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points Nevada and UCLA will score together in the final quarter of their college football matchup. Each market has a different threshold, determining whether the combined score exceeds that amount.
All markets resolve based on the total points scored by both teams during the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Nevada vs UCLA college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price. Each individual market has a specific point threshold; if the combined 4th quarter points exceed that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, whereas this market is driven by individuals trading on their own information and beliefs. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially closer to the event. However, sportsbook odds can be a useful point of comparison to gauge public sentiment and identify potential value in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of the total points scored in the 4th quarter falling within a specific range. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and trader sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of potential outcomes. The current price reflects the collective prediction of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Nevada vs UCLA game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total points scored in the 4th quarter will be the determining factor, and that information will be sourced from official game statistics. The platform will then determine which contracts payout based on whether the actual total falls within the predicted ranges represented by those contracts. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Nevada or UCLA would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they affect scoring, could also shift the market. In-game performance during the first three quarters, especially if one team establishes a dominant lead, could impact predictions about the 4th quarter total. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could also signal shifts in expectations.