TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 6:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the third quarter of a college football game between Nevada and UCLA. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team during that quarter for the outcome to be considered valid.
The markets resolve based on the point differential achieved by either Nevada or UCLA exclusively during the third quarter of the game scheduled for October 31, 2026. If UCLA wins the third quarter by more than the specified margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'UCLA wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Nevada wins the third quarter by more than the specified margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'Nevada wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the third quarter; points from other quarters are irrelevant. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market's odds are determined by the collective predictions of traders. It’s common to see initial discrepancies, but as more information becomes available and trading volume increases, this market tends to converge with sportsbook lines, though differences can persist due to varying market participants and incentives. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread of the Nevada vs UCLA game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their investment. The market’s outcome is determined by the actual game results, not by any subjective judgment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could impact trader sentiment and shift the odds. Unexpected performance in the first and second quarters of the game will also likely cause significant movement. Public opinion, as reflected in polls or analyst predictions, can also play a role, though this market is driven primarily by trading activity on Kalshi. Major shifts in volume, even without specific news, can also indicate changing expectations.