TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 5:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the second quarter of a college football game between Nevada and UCLA. Each market corresponds to a specific point margin threshold that must be exceeded by either team during that quarter to determine the outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the second quarter of play in the Nevada vs UCLA college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For markets where UCLA must win by a specified margin, resolution occurs only if UCLA's point total exceeds Nevada's by more than the stated threshold during that quarter. Conversely, for markets where Nevada must win by a specified margin, resolution requires Nevada's point total to exceed UCLA's by more than the stated threshold in the same timeframe. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals freely trading based on their own beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. While sportsbooks may initially have different lines, they often adjust closer to game time, potentially converging with the prediction market's assessment of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final 2nd quarter spread between Nevada and UCLA will be the determining factor. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on objective data.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. News regarding player injuries to key players on either Nevada or UCLA would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team performance during the first quarter of the game could also shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions, if they affect the game, could also play a role. Finally, any significant public information released about team strategies or coaching decisions could impact trading activity and alter the perceived probabilities within this market.