TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 6:43 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Netherlands and Serbia, scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Netherlands" if Netherlands are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Serbia" if Serbia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between Netherlands and Serbia, scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Netherlands" if Netherlands are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Serbia" if Serbia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds due to varying information and incentives. Sportsbooks incorporate a profit margin into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both venues. However, it's important to note that prediction market odds can be more volatile, especially closer to the event, as new information emerges and sentiment shifts.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated based on the latest information and sentiment, offering a real-time gauge of expectations for which team will score first.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team scores the first goal in the Netherlands vs. Serbia match. The result will be based on official match data and records, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution. Any potential disputes will be evaluated based on publicly available information from reliable sources covering the game.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the match. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either the Netherlands or Serbia would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team formations or tactical approaches announced by the coaches could also shift expectations. Furthermore, pre-match analysis from sports analysts and any unexpected developments in weather conditions could all contribute to fluctuations in the odds. Public sentiment and late-breaking news are also potential catalysts for price changes in this market.