TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:45 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team is ranked within the top 3 (positions 1 through 3, inclusive) of the Week 8 Associated Press (AP) Top 25 college football poll for the 2026 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "Week 8 AP poll" refers to the AP Top 25 poll released in Week 8 of the 2026 regular season, expected on October 25, 2026. The preseason poll does not count. A team ranked exactly 3th counts as "Yes"; a team ranked 4th or lower, receiving only "also receiving votes," or unranked counts as "No". If the AP does not release a Week 8 poll for the 2026 season by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution will be based on the first official in-season AP Top 25 poll published thereafter. The primary resolution source will be the official Associated Press Top 25 college football poll (https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed team is ranked within the top 3 (positions 1 through 3, inclusive) of the Week 8 Associated Press (AP) Top 25 college football poll for the 2026 season. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The "Week 8 AP poll" refers to the AP Top 25 poll released in Week 8 of the 2026 regular season, expected on October 25, 2026. The preseason poll does not count. A team ranked exactly 3th counts as "Yes"; a team ranked 4th or lower, receiving only "also receiving votes," or unranked counts as "No". If the AP does not release a Week 8 poll for the 2026 season by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution will be based on the first official in-season AP Top 25 poll published thereafter. The primary resolution source will be the official Associated Press Top 25 college football poll (https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or promotional considerations. Sportsbooks may initially set lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely adjust probabilities based on their own analysis and information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on team strength, injuries, or potential upsets. Observing these differences can offer valuable insights into where the crowd believes the value lies compared to traditional betting markets.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a team’s likelihood of being in the top three. The price of each share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular team, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price, indicating decreasing confidence. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Week 8 AP Poll is released and the top three teams are verified against credible public sources. The AP Poll is compiled by a panel of sports writers and broadcasters, and their rankings will serve as the definitive result for determining which teams successfully met the conditions of this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final AP Poll rankings.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Unexpected injuries to key players on contending teams, surprising upsets in early-season games, and shifts in team performance due to coaching changes are all potential catalysts. Significant media coverage or expert analysis questioning a team’s ranking could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any major news regarding player eligibility or NCAA investigations could introduce volatility and shift probabilities within this market.