TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 8:34 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the outcome of a baseball game between the NC Dinos and SSG Landers, focusing on the margin of victory. It determines whether either team will win by a specific number of runs or more, reflecting the competitive balance between the two teams in the matchup.
The event evaluates multiple possible outcomes of a single baseball game between the NC Dinos and SSG Landers, scheduled for October 7, 2026. Four distinct markets resolve based on the winning team and the margin of victory: SSG Landers winning by over 2.5 runs, SSG Landers winning by over 1.5 runs, NC Dinos winning by over 1.5 runs, and NC Dinos winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market has a specific threshold for the run differential required for resolution to 'Yes.' If the actual result meets any of these thresholds, the corresponding market resolves accordingly. All markets are independent, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. The event operates under the condition that the game takes place as originally scheduled; any postponements or rescheduling may impact market resolution. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, as they reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders. However, sportsbook odds often move first in response to breaking news, while this market may take a bit longer to incorporate new information. You may find that initial sportsbook lines offer value before the prediction market fully adjusts, or vice versa. It's common to see differences in probabilities, especially as the event approaches, as each relies on different information sources and weighting mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the NC Dinos will cover the spread against the SSG Landers. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater probability of the Dinos covering. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate predictions may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the most up-to-date collective assessment of the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the NC Dinos versus SSG Landers game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will determine whether the Dinos covered the spread as defined by the market conditions at the time of trading. The outcome is based on the official game results and will be reported by established sports news sources. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 7, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the NC Dinos or the SSG Landers would likely have a significant impact. Changes in the starting pitchers for either team could also shift the odds. Weather conditions at the game location are another potential catalyst, as rain delays or strong winds could affect the outcome. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding the teams’ performance could also move this market.