TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 2?
Volume:
$3,347
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines whether Natural Gas (NG) futures prices move up or down on April 2, 2026. Kalshi offers 70 binary markets each tied to specific price thresholds, while Polymarket offers a single relative-comparison market measuring price change from the prior trading day's close.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket measure fundamentally different outcomes: Kalshi uses absolute price thresholds while Polymarket uses relative day-over-day comparison. The markets cannot resolve in lockstep.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket outcomes will align. A price above a Kalshi threshold does not predict Polymarket direction without knowing the prior day's close. Monitor both April 1 and April 2 closing prices separately if trading both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 70 independent binary markets, each tied to an absolute price threshold for the 1-minute close at 5:00 PM EDT on April 2, 2026. Resolution is YES if price exceeds threshold, NO otherwise. All use Pyth as data source. Key Quote: 'If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on April 02, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single relative-comparison market resolving UP if April 2 close > April 1 close, DOWN if April 2 close < April 1 close, or 50-50 if equal or no trade. Uses Pyth Close values for Active Month NG futures, with CME official close as fallback. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on April 2, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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