TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 10:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the performance gap between Nashville and Philadelphia in their upcoming MLS soccer match. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, reflecting how decisively one team outperforms the other. Outcomes are determined by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential of the Nashville vs Philadelphia professional MLS soccer game scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Nashville wins by more than 2.5 goals or by more than 1.5 goals, or if Philadelphia wins by more than 1.5 goals or by more than 2.5 goals. All markets share the same secondary disclaimer stating that Kalshi is not affiliated with the Governing League and that all trademarks, logos, and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds, but with subtle differences. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or biases, and sometimes prediction markets can offer more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It's worth comparing both to get a comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for Nashville to cover the spread, the price increases, signaling a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, providing a real-time assessment of the potential result. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread will be determined by the official result of the Nashville versus Philadelphia game. If Nashville wins by more than the spread, those holding contracts predicting that outcome will be paid out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics and results as reported by the league, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any significant news regarding player injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather forecasts could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news about team morale or internal conflicts could also play a role. As the game day approaches, updates on player availability and final lineup announcements will likely have the most substantial impact on the price of contracts in this market. Public perception and analyst opinions can also contribute to market movement.