TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether New York RB will win its professional MLS soccer game against Nashville. Currently, Kalshi gives New York RB a 54.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 33.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Nashville vs New York RB game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result. Keep an eye on the match itself, scheduled for November 1, 2026, as the result of that game will determine the outcome of this market and its resolution on or around November 2, 2026.
The markets resolve based on the result of the Nashville vs New York RB professional MLS soccer game scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for either Nashville or New York RB occurs if that team wins the match within regular time. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules. The markets exclusively consider the result after regular time and do not account for extra time or penalty shootouts.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to maximize profit, factoring in a 'vig' or commission. This market, however, is driven by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. As a result, the implied probabilities from Kalshi can sometimes diverge from sportsbook lines, potentially offering value to informed bettors. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information emerges and shifts public perception of the likely result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity determine the liquidity and price discovery process. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the event's outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Nashville versus New York RB match will be used to determine the winning contract. This includes official league results and any subsequent rulings that may affect the outcome. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, ensuring a fair and accurate settlement for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Nov 2, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Nashville or New York RB would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, such as a winning or losing streak, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even major tactical adjustments announced by the coaches, could all contribute to price fluctuations. Any news impacting the perceived likelihood of either team winning could move this market.