TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 30?
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, March 30, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on Monday, March 30, 2026 is lower than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If NDX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq 100 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Polymarket resolves based on directional price movement (Up/Down vs. prior trading day), while Kalshi contains 60 separate binary markets each resolving on absolute price thresholds. These are structurally different event types that cannot produce aligned outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are equivalent. Polymarket's single Up/Down market and Kalshi's 60 threshold-based markets will produce different winners and losers depending on the March 30 closing price. A price movement that resolves YES on Polymarket (e.g., up 0.5%) may resolve NO on multiple Kalshi thresholds, and vice versa. Treat them as separate, non-hedging instruments.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves as a single binary directional comparison. Market resolves YES (Up) if the March 30 closing price is higher than the most recent prior trading day's close, NO (Down) if lower, and 50-50 if equal. Source is Wall Street Journal Historical Prices. Logic: 'This market will resolve to Up if the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on Monday, March 30, 2026 is higher than the official Nasdaq 100 Index closing price for NDX on the most recent prior trading day.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves as 60 independent binary markets, each tied to an absolute price threshold (ranging from 20499.99 to 26399.99). Each market resolves YES if end-of-day NDX exceeds its specific threshold, NO otherwise. No directional comparison to prior day; no 50-50 tie resolution. Logic: 'If the end-of-day Nasdaq 100 index value on March 30, 2026 is above [threshold].99, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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