TOTAL VOLUME:
$53.9b
24H VOL:
$231,847,320
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,314,157,835
499,417
Markets across
14,310
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,754
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 26?
Volume:
$52,094
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index closes higher or lower on February 26, 2026 compared to the prior trading day. Polymarket frames this as a directional comparison (Up vs Down), while Kalshi offers 60 separate binary markets each tied to specific price thresholds. Both ultimately depend on the official closing price published by the Nasdaq 100 Index on that date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution architectures for the same underlying event. Polymarket resolves a single directional comparison (relative to prior close); Kalshi resolves 60 independent absolute price-level binaries. These cannot be reconciled into a unified framework.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are interchangeable. Polymarket requires a prior-day close reference point; Kalshi does not. If you believe NDX will close at 25000 on Feb 26, that informs Kalshi markets but tells you nothing about Polymarket unless you also know the Feb 25 close. Treat them as separate prediction instruments.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Single binary directional market. Resolves Up if Feb 26 close > Feb 25 (or most recent prior trading day) close; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Source: WSJ Historical Prices. Handles edge cases (no trade, shortened session, trading halt) with fallback to last valid on-exchange trade price.
- Kalshi: 60 separate binary markets, each tied to an absolute NDX price threshold. Each market resolves Yes if end-of-day Feb 26 NDX > specified level (e.g., 22899.99, 25000.00, 27799.99). No directional or relative-to-prior logic. No explicit edge-case handling or source specification.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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