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NASCAR: Xfinity 500 Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win NASCAR Xfinity 500?

Volume:
$3,347,687

William Byron

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 7:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

William Byron

View
100%
94%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$244,610
N/A
N/A
$174,722
Settled
Yes
polymarket

William Byron

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$2
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
Yes
kalshi

Chase Elliott

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$312,920
N/A
N/A
$218,154
Settled
No
polymarket

Chase Elliott

View
0%
87%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Denny Hamlin

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$247,870
N/A
N/A
$170,764
Settled
No
polymarket

Denny Hamlin

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Kyle Larson

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$223,684
N/A
N/A
$193,301
Settled
No
polymarket

Kyle Larson

View
0%
89%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Josh Berry

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$206,286
N/A
N/A
$145,724
Settled
No
polymarket

Josh Berry

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Christopher Bell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200,683
N/A
N/A
$166,762
Settled
No
polymarket

Christopher Bell

View
0%
88%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Ryan Preece

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$199,084
N/A
N/A
$139,317
Settled
No
polymarket

Ryan Preece

View
0%
96%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Ty Gibbs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191,297
N/A
N/A
$158,020
Settled
No
polymarket

Ty Gibbs

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Chase Briscoe

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$175,090
N/A
N/A
$160,001
Settled
No
polymarket

Chase Briscoe

View
0%
89%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Joey Logano

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$171,388
N/A
N/A
$141,928
Settled
No
polymarket

Joey Logano

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Ross Chastain

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$160,012
N/A
N/A
$141,946
Settled
No
polymarket

Ross Chastain

View
0%
97%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Ryan Blaney

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147,605
N/A
N/A
$137,398
Settled
No
polymarket

Ryan Blaney

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 14h 45m
No
kalshi

Bubba Wallace

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$128,203
N/A
N/A
$119,641
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 80

Intro

This market tracks the winner of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 race. Currently, the consensus probability that William Byron will win is 98.0%. This aggregate reflects trading activity from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the official results published by NASCAR (nascar.com). The outcome will be determined following the conclusion of the race, including any penalties or adjustments, but disqualifications after official results are published will not affect resolution. Keep an eye on the race itself, scheduled for November 8, 2026, to see if this prediction holds true.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Kalshi and Polymarket rely on the official NASCAR race results to determine the winner, with Polymarket adding a clause for significant rescheduling.Primary resolution logic: Official NASCAR website (nascar.com)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the driver who finishes first in the official NASCAR race results.
  • Post-race disqualifications or adjustments reflected in the official results are honored.
  • If the race is canceled or rescheduled more than 7 days after the original date (Polymarket only), the market resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Race Cancellation: If the race is canceled and not rescheduled within 7 days (Polymarket), the market resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not explicitly address cancellation.
  • Post-Race Penalties: Penalties assessed *after* the official results are published will not change the resolution.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official race results are published by NASCAR, expected shortly after the conclusion of the race on November 1, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a Polymarket on the winner of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500, scheduled for Nov 1, 2026. If the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 is canceled or rescheduled to a date 7 days after the original scheduled date, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Official Race Results published by NASCAR following the conclusion of the race. The official results are typically released shortly after the race ends and include any applied penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the official results will not affect market resolution. The timing of the victory lane ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only NASCAR's published results will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official NASCAR website (nascar.com) and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the official final results of the 2026 Xfinity 500, which must be posted by NASCAR. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified driver finishes first in the main race. If the driver retires, is disqualified, or is not classified as a finisher, the market resolves to 'No.' If the race is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the race is canceled or does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the dashboard for the Xfinity 500 winner market tracks the probability of various outcomes as expressed by traders. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $3,347,687, with $2,238,068 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in predicting the race winner. The dashboard provides a consensus view, combining data from both venues to offer a comprehensive look at where the crowd believes the most likely winner lies. This allows for a broader understanding than looking at either Polymarket or Kalshi in isolation.