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410,833

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NASCAR The Progress Group 250: Top 3 Finishers
kalshi

Who will finish in the top 3?

Volume:
$17,485

Sammy Smith

 - Kalshi

Sammy Smith - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 10:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sammy Smith

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,428
N/A
N/A
$916
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jesse Love

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,263
N/A
N/A
$882
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Carson Kvapil

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$641
N/A
N/A
$517
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Parker Retzlaff

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,856
N/A
N/A
$2,720
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeb Burton

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,685
N/A
N/A
$1,661
Settled
No
kalshi

Rajah Caruth

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,403
N/A
N/A
$1,398
Settled
No
kalshi

Sheldon Creed

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,114
N/A
N/A
$1,112
Settled
No
kalshi

Austin Hill

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$762
N/A
N/A
$671
Settled
No
kalshi

Anthony Alfredo

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$722
N/A
N/A
$675
Settled
No
kalshi

Brennan Poole

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$640
N/A
N/A
$616
Settled
No
kalshi

Corey Day

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
$516
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Allgaier

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$573
N/A
N/A
$536
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Sieg

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$511
N/A
N/A
$511
Settled
No
kalshi

Blaine Perkins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$483
N/A
N/A
$473
Settled
No
kalshi

Brent Crews

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$469
N/A
N/A
$466
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Mayer

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$437
N/A
N/A
$427
Settled
No
kalshi

Brandon Jones

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$352
N/A
N/A
$352
Settled
No
kalshi

Taylor Gray

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$347
N/A
N/A
$346
Settled
No
kalshi

Jake Finch

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$267
N/A
N/A
$267
Settled
No
kalshi

Dean Thompson

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$263
N/A
N/A
$260
Settled
No
kalshi

William Sawalich

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$222
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeremy Clements

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$194
N/A
N/A
$184
Settled
No
kalshi

Connor Mosack

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$122
Settled
No
kalshi

Harrison Burton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
$121
Settled
No
kalshi

Lee Pulliam

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event tracks the performance of multiple NASCAR drivers in a single race, determining if any specified driver achieves a top-three finish. The outcome depends on official race results and adheres to specific conditions regarding race cancellations or delays.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether any of the listed NASCAR drivers finish in the top three positions during the main race scheduled for October 24, 2026, at the NASCAR The Progress Group 250. Each driver has an individual market that resolves to 'Yes' if that specific driver finishes in the top three and 'No' otherwise. If a driver retires, is disqualified, or is not classified as a finisher, their respective market resolves to 'No'. The race must be officially completed and results posted by NASCAR; provisional results are not considered. If the race is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final official results. If the race is canceled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi emphasizes it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the NASCAR race outcome tracks the current prices for each driver to finish in the top three, the 24-hour trading volume of $15,287, and the total volume traded to date of $17,485. You can also view a price history chart to see how the probabilities have shifted over time. This allows traders to understand market sentiment and identify potential opportunities related to the NASCAR race outcome. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes the most likely top three finishers will be.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook odds which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market aggregates the views of many independent traders. As the event approaches, prediction market prices tend to become more aligned with sportsbook odds, as new information is incorporated by both. However, discrepancies can still exist due to differing market participants and risk appetites. It's common to see this market offer a different perspective than traditional betting outlets.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a particular driver finishing in the top three. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract represents the cost to own one unit of exposure to that outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, based on supply and demand.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of The Progress Group 250 are verifiable from credible public reporting. The drivers who officially finish in the top three positions, as determined by NASCAR, will be the winning outcomes for this market. The resolution will be based on the final, official race results, and any official rulings or adjustments made by NASCAR regarding the race outcome. Any disputes regarding the official results will be resolved based on publicly available information from NASCAR.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected driver injuries or mechanical failures during practice or qualifying sessions would likely shift probabilities. Weather forecasts, particularly the possibility of rain, can also cause substantial movement, as wet conditions often lead to unpredictable race results. Major news regarding team strategy changes or driver performance could also influence trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking information about track conditions or tire performance could lead to shifts in the perceived likelihood of different drivers finishing in the top three.