TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 4:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Napoli and Frosinone, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals each team scores during the regulated 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time. Different thresholds define whether the market settles positively for each possible winning scenario.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Napoli vs Frosinone Serie A match scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcome thresholds determine resolution: Napoli winning by more than 2.5 goals, Napoli winning by more than 1.5 goals, Frosinone winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Frosinone winning by more than 2.5 goals. Whichever condition is met first resolves the corresponding market to 'Yes.' The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the league governing body, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than the sportsbook suggests, the price will move accordingly. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. This can be a useful comparison when evaluating potential value.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Napoli vs Frosinone match, specifically the goal spread. The platform will verify the result against official sources to determine the winning contract. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, based on publicly available data and the established rules of the event.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Napoli or Frosinone would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news about team morale or coaching changes could also cause movement. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate new information or a change in expectations, leading to price adjustments in this market.