TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
kalshi
polymarket

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

Total volume:
$109,879
Volume 24h:
$92,394N/A
Liquidity:
$305
8%
Open interest:
$34,796
0%

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 4.5¢ buys you 2,222 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $2,222 | Net Profit: $2,122 Multiplier: 22.22x | ROI: 2,122% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

Trade
3%
Yes 4.5¢No 98.2¢
2.7¢
$305
$17,485
0%
0.05%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$92,394
0%
0.4%
$34,796
2mo 2w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3%
Yes 4.8¢No 98.1¢
Avg: 2.8¢Max: 3¢
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group asks whether Elon Musk will no longer be the CEO of Tesla before January 1, 2027. Both platforms define resolution based on Musk's departure from the CEO role, but differ slightly on the specific timeframe considered for resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines a specific resolution window (Nov 11, 2025 - Dec 31, 2026), while Kalshi considers any departure by Dec 31, 2026.Hero tip: Focus on the broader 'by Dec 31, 2026' timeframe. Polymarket's earlier window is a subset of Kalshi's, so a 'Yes' on Kalshi is more likely. Be aware that a 'No' on Polymarket doesn't guarantee a 'No' on Kalshi.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if Musk is no longer CEO between Nov 11, 2025, and Dec 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. An announcement of resignation/firing before the end date immediately resolves to 'Yes'.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if Musk is no longer CEO by Dec 31, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

If Elon Musk is no longer CEO of Tesla by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time predictions from multiple platforms regarding whether Elon Musk will step down as Tesla CEO before Jan 1, 2027. Currently, the combined volume across Polymarket and Kalshi exceeds $109,879, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours. The Polymarket and Kalshi markets allow traders to express their beliefs about this event, creating a consensus view of the probability of a CEO change at Tesla. This provides a dynamic forecast, reflecting new information and shifting sentiment. The Tesla CEO succession market offers a unique perspective beyond traditional analysis.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or incentives, while prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. Currently, this market suggests a relatively low probability of Musk leaving his role as CEO before Jan 1, 2027. However, this differs from some analyst predictions that highlight potential succession planning discussions within Tesla. The market’s dynamic pricing can react more quickly to new information than slower-moving analyst reports, offering a potentially more up-to-date assessment of the situation.

On Polymarket, this market currently favors Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? at 3.1%, while Kalshi leans toward Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2026? at 3.0%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. These price discrepancies can arise due to several factors, including differing liquidity, user bases, and market-specific rules. Polymarket may attract a different type of trader than Kalshi, leading to varying interpretations of the same information. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform influences price discovery; Polymarket has seen a larger volume of $109,879 traded, potentially impacting its price relative to Kalshi.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Elon Musk has officially relinquished the role of CEO at Tesla before that date. Any interim or acting CEO appointments will not count towards a positive resolution. The focus is on a permanent change in leadership, as publicly announced and widely reported by reliable news sources. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from Tesla or Elon Musk regarding succession planning would be a major catalyst. Unexpected developments related to Musk’s other ventures, such as SpaceX or X, could also influence the market, particularly if they demand more of his time and attention. Furthermore, significant legal or regulatory challenges facing Tesla or Musk could prompt a change in leadership. Positive or negative news regarding Tesla’s financial performance or technological advancements could also shift trader sentiment and move the price of this market.