TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.2b

24H VOL:

$217,900,088

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,256,149,940

499,530

Markets across

13,705

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,785

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
Dashboards
polymarket
kalshi
Trending

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

Total volume:
$86,230
Volume 24h:
$0
100%
Liquidity:
$3,292
13%
Open interest:
$31,162
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue:

Polymarket includes an announcement-triggered resolution clause that Kalshi does not, creating different resolution timelines. Polymarket resolves YES upon announcement of resignation/firing regardless of effective date, while Kalshi resolves YES only if Musk is no longer CEO by the deadline.

Hero Tip:

On Polymarket, you can win by betting YES if Musk merely announces his departure before end of 2026, even if the transition happens after. On Kalshi, the announcement alone is insufficient—he must actually cease being CEO by Dec 31, 2026. If you expect an announcement without immediate transition, Polymarket YES is the better bet.

Critical Divergence Points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if Musk ceases to be CEO between Nov 11, 2025 and Dec 31, 2026, OR if an announcement of resignation/firing is made before market end, regardless of effective date. Primary source: official Tesla/Musk information or credible reporting consensus. Key quote: 'An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to YES, regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES only if Elon Musk is no longer CEO of Tesla by Dec 31, 2026. No announcement clause; actual cessation of role is required. Key quote: 'If Elon Musk is no longer CEO of Tesla by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.