TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:04 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Mugla and Istanbulspor in the TFF 1. Lig league. The result will be determined based on the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts. The event covers three possible outcomes: a win for either team or a draw.
The event resolves based on the official result of the Mugla vs Istanbulspor professional TFF 1. Lig soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome occurs for the respective market if the designated team wins the match within regulation time; if the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. The event exclusively considers regulation time results, excluding extra time or penalty shootout outcomes. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi often reflect information and insights different from those captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd. If sportsbook odds heavily favor one team, but the prediction market shows a more even split, it could indicate disagreement among bettors or a belief that the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of an upset. It's a valuable comparison point for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform facilitates this price discovery process, allowing traders to express their views and adjust their positions based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Turkish Super Lig match between Mugla and Istanbulspor, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The contract corresponding to the winning team will pay out, while contracts for losing teams will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in coaching staff would likely have an impact. Significant shifts in public opinion, reflected in betting patterns or sports news coverage, could also drive price movements. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match analysis suggesting a tactical advantage for one team could also cause the market to react. Monitoring these signals will be key to understanding potential shifts in probability before Oct 24, 2026.