TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 2:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Mugla and Bursa teams in the TFF 1. Lig league. The result is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The event covers three possible outcomes: a win for Mugla, a win for Bursa, or a tie.
The event resolves based on the result of the Mugla vs Bursa professional TFF 1. Lig soccer match scheduled for October 15, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three distinct markets correspond to the possible outcomes: Mugla win, Bursa win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the event rules. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows traders to express their beliefs about the true probability of an outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply a wider range of participants contributing to the price discovery process. It's common to see this market incorporate information that isn't immediately reflected in traditional betting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market-making system to ensure there are always bids and asks available, facilitating continuous trading and price discovery. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mugla vs Bursa match as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts for the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution. It's important to monitor the event for any potential delays or changes that could affect the resolution timeline.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 15, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or shifts in coaching strategies could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or other external factors affecting the match could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants or significant shifts in public opinion could cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring sports news and social media for relevant updates is crucial for understanding potential catalysts.