TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 1:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin. The market focuses on determining whether either team wins the game within regular time, or if the match ends in a tie. The result is based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event covers three possible outcomes of the Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin professional Ekstraklasa soccer match scheduled for October 23, 2026: a win for Motor Lublin, a win for Zaglebie Lubin, or a tie. Each market resolves based on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Additionally, if the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price according to the defined procedures. The rules explicitly state that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and risk management, while this market relies on the collective forecasts of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could indicate that PredictionHero traders believe the sportsbook has mispriced the event. It’s common to see convergence as the event approaches, but differences can persist, offering potential value to informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic forecast. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a particular result, and therefore represents a collective prediction of the event’s outcome. This constant price discovery is a key feature of prediction markets.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin match in the Polish Ekstraklasa. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment. The process is designed to be transparent and objective.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Motor Lublin or Zaglebie Lubin would likely have an impact. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity from large traders or shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in other sources like sports news and analysis, could all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals can help traders make more informed decisions.