TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 1:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Motherwell and St. Mirren, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. Bets are settled based on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a winning outcome in the Motherwell vs St. Mirren Scottish Premiership match scheduled for October 31, 2026. Resolution occurs strictly after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct criteria define potential market resolutions: Motherwell must win by more than 2.5 goals, Motherwell must win by more than 1.5 goals, St. Mirren must win by more than 1.5 goals, or St. Mirren must win by more than 2.5 goals. The governing body’s official match result, as recorded in the league’s official records, serves as the sole determinant of resolution. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal association with the league or its governing entities, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective rights holders.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, factoring in a margin for themselves, whereas this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional forecasts, especially when there is significant trading volume. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before a large amount of trading occurs on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different outcomes of the Motherwell vs St. Mirren match. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event's potential results. The current price indicates the cost to buy a contract predicting a specific outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Motherwell vs St. Mirren match, specifically the spread as determined by official match statistics. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing side will not. The exact details of the resolution process are outlined on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift traders’ expectations. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or tactical changes can also have a significant impact. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders or institutional investors could also cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into how the market is reacting to new information.