TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 3:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The match features two national teams competing in an international friendly, where the outcome depends on whether both teams manage to score during regular time, including any added stoppage time. This contest serves as a preparatory event for both sides, allowing them to test strategies and player performance in a real-game setting. The focus is solely on the in-game action within the standard match duration.
If Morocco and Mali both score a goal in the Morocco vs Mali Intl Friendlies match originally scheduled for Oct 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, whereas this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is mispricing the probability of both teams scoring in the Morocco vs Mali match, the prediction market odds will adjust accordingly. These differences can create opportunities for arbitrage or informed speculation, though it’s important to note that both represent probabilities, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of both teams scoring in the Morocco vs Mali match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ beliefs about the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts anticipating a 'Yes' outcome (both teams to score), the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those participating.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Morocco vs Mali match is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether both teams score at least one goal during the match. Official sources will be used to determine if both teams have scored, and this information will be used to settle the market. The outcome will be a simple 'Yes' if both teams score, or 'No' if one or both teams fail to find the back of the net.
Several factors could influence this market before the Morocco vs Mali match takes place. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions unfavorable for attacking football, could also impact the odds. Furthermore, any pre-match analysis from reputable football experts predicting a high or low-scoring game could sway market sentiment. Finally, even significant shifts in public opinion, reflected in betting patterns, can drive price changes in this market.