TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 2:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Monza will win its professional Serie A soccer game against Cagliari. Currently, Kalshi gives Monza a 62.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 26.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the Monza vs Cagliari game originally scheduled for October 19, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time—excluding any extra time or penalties—according to Kalshi’s resolution source. Keep a close watch on the kickoff of the match itself on October 19, 2026, as that will determine whether the game goes to a result within the 90-minute window.
The market resolves based on the outcome of the professional Serie A soccer game between Monza and Cagliari scheduled for Oct 19, 2026. If Monza wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the 'Monza' market resolves to Yes. If Cagliari wins under the same conditions, the 'Cagliari' market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. It's common to see this market and sportsbook odds converge as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Monza vs Cagliari match. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The goal is to find contracts that are mispriced relative to your own assessment of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Monza vs Cagliari match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official result declared by the governing football authorities. The resolution process ensures an objective determination of the winner or draw, providing clarity and finality to the market. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several signals could influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Monza or Cagliari would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather conditions on match day could also impact trading activity. Unexpected news related to team morale or off-field issues could also contribute to price movements. Monitoring these factors can help you understand potential catalysts for changes in this market.