TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Monza wins by more than 2.5 goals
- Kalshi
Monza wins by more than 2.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 8, 2026
Time left: 05d:11h:25m
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This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match between Monza and Atalanta, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time. Different thresholds for goal differences determine the resolution.
The event evaluates various goal-difference thresholds to determine resolution across four distinct markets. Each market specifies a unique winning condition based on the margin of victory for either Monza or Atalanta in the Serie A match scheduled for November 8, 2026. All resolutions occur after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. A 'Yes' outcome occurs only if the specified threshold—whether Monza winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or Atalanta winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals—is met. If none of these conditions are satisfied, all markets resolve to 'No.' The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own information and analysis. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – the odds on Kalshi may diverge from sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast outcomes, especially as the event approaches, as they aggregate a wider range of perspectives than a single sportsbook.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment. The current volume traded is $0, indicating the level of interest in this particular event.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Monza vs Atalanta match, specifically the spread as determined by official league statistics. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will forfeit their investment. The final score will be the determining factor for settlement, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 8, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either Monza or Atalanta would likely cause a shift in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any news regarding tactical changes or managerial decisions could influence how traders assess the likelihood of different outcomes. Even weather conditions on match day could play a role, particularly if they favor one team's playing style over the other.