TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Vancouver wins by more than 1.5 goals
- Kalshi
Vancouver wins by more than 1.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 05d:02h:43m
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This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Montreal and Vancouver, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different threshold values for goal differentials to determine the result. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential thresholds to determine resolution across four distinct markets. All markets apply strictly to the official MLS match between Montreal and Vancouver scheduled for November 7, 2026, and resolve based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time—extra time and penalty kicks are explicitly excluded. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the winning team meets or exceeds the specified goal-differential threshold defined in each market: Montreal winning by more than 2.5 goals, Montreal winning by more than 1.5 goals, Vancouver winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Vancouver winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each market operates independently, meaning satisfaction of one threshold does not automatically determine the others. The rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets—Kalshi—holds no official affiliation with Major League Soccer, and all league-related trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public perception and team news, while this market aggregates the beliefs of numerous individual traders. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the expected outcome of the Montreal vs Vancouver game, though it's important to remember they represent different forms of forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Montreal vs Vancouver spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price will fluctuate based on supply and demand; if more people believe Vancouver will win by a certain margin, the price of that contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective intelligence of the traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Montreal vs Vancouver game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result published by the relevant sporting authority. Traders holding contracts on the winning spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing spread will forfeit their investment. The final score will determine which spread contracts settle positively.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 8, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either the Montreal or Vancouver teams would likely cause significant shifts. Unexpected changes in team performance, such as a winning or losing streak, could also impact trader sentiment. Major news regarding coaching changes or team strategy could also move the market. Finally, any public statements from key personnel or analysts offering strong opinions on the game's likely outcome could influence trading activity and the price of contracts in this market.