TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 10:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses different margin-of-victory scenarios for an upcoming NHL game between Montreal and St. Louis. It focuses on how many goals each team might win by, reflecting the potential dominance of either side in the match. Outcomes are determined by the final score and specific goal-difference thresholds.
The event consists of four markets, each tied to a specific goal-difference threshold for either Montreal or St. Louis to win by. If St. Louis wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If St. Louis wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Montreal wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, the odds here will adjust accordingly, potentially offering value compared to those found at sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the matchup between Montreal and St. Louis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Montreal versus St. Louis spread. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the event's potential results. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread for the Montreal versus St. Louis game will be sourced from official game statistics and verified against credible public sources. The market will settle based on whether Montreal covers the spread, St. Louis covers the spread, or the game results in a push. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Montreal or St. Louis teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in goaltending matchups, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected shifts in public perception, driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could also play a role. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either team covering the spread has the potential to move the market.