TOTAL VOLUME:
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 7:57 PM EST
Kalshi
Another set of markets focuses on the margin of victory in the same Montevideo City versus Atletico Mineiro match. These markets will determine if either team secures a decisive win, with specific attention to the number of goals by which they win.
This event includes several markets centered on the spread of the Montevideo City vs Atletico Mineiro professional CONMEBOL Sudamericana soccer game scheduled for October 21, 2026, focusing on the margin of victory during regulation time (90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties). Two teams are considered: Montevideo City and Atletico Mineiro. The markets resolve based on whether Montevideo City wins by more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals, or whether Atletico Mineiro wins by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals. If the specified condition for a market is met, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Each market operates independently with its own victory margin threshold.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting patterns and perceived biases, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the event's outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing the two can offer valuable insights into differing perspectives on the likelihood of a particular result in the Montevideo City vs Atletico Mineiro match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. Traders are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of each outcome, as profitable trades depend on correctly predicting the final result. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders believe is a fair price for taking a position on the regulation time spread between Montevideo City and Atletico Mineiro.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final regulation time spread between Montevideo City and Atletico Mineiro will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result of the match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders will be able to view the confirmed outcome and any associated payouts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Montevideo City or Atletico Mineiro would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Significant betting activity from informed traders could also shift the price. Finally, any updates on the overall competitive landscape in the league could affect how this market is perceived, leading to adjustments in the price of contracts related to the regulation time spread.