TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 11:11 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Monterrey and Guadalajara, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates four distinct outcome scenarios for the Monterrey vs Guadalajara professional Liga MX soccer match scheduled for October 24, 2026. All resolutions are based exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. If Monterrey wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes. If Monterrey wins by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Only one of these markets can resolve to Yes, depending on the exact goal differential of the match. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can take a position in this market, driving the price away from the sportsbook's initial offering. This dynamic can lead to prediction markets being more accurate than sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final spread in the Monterrey vs Guadalajara match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, essentially reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the price is to 100, the more traders believe Monterrey will cover the spread, while a price closer to 0 suggests Guadalajara will cover. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Monterrey vs Guadalajara match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The final spread will be compared to the market’s contract value to determine payouts to traders who correctly predicted the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Monterrey or Guadalajara would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or internal team issues could also shift the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could signal new information or a change in expectations, causing the price to adjust accordingly.