TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:44 PM EST
Polymarket
This prediction market asks for the winner of the second half of a UEFA Nations League match between Montenegro and Armenia. The market considers goals scored specifically within the second half of regular play, including stoppage time, to determine the winner or a draw.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Montenegro and Armenia, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Montenegro" if Montenegro score more goals than Armenia in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Montenegro and Armenia score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Armenia" if Armenia score more goals than Montenegro in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Montenegro and Armenia, scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Montenegro" if Montenegro score more goals than Armenia in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Montenegro and Armenia score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Armenia" if Armenia score more goals than Montenegro in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict for this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on models and expert analysis, while prediction markets aggregate the views of many individual bettors. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert consensus. It's possible to find arbitrage opportunities by comparing the implied probabilities from both sources. However, factors like differing liquidity and market focus can also influence the observed differences.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules. Polymarket might attract a different type of trader than Predict, leading to differing opinions reflected in the prices. Additionally, the volume of trading on each platform impacts price discovery; higher volume generally leads to more efficient pricing. Different fee structures or liquidity incentives on each platform can also contribute to price discrepancies. Finally, the information available to traders on each platform might vary, influencing their assessments of the likely outcome.