TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 4:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Monaco and Toulouse, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Monaco vs Toulouse Ligue 1 match scheduled for October 10, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered, each tied to specific goal margins: Monaco winning by more than 2.5 goals, Monaco winning by more than 1.5 goals, Toulouse winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Toulouse winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The event explicitly states that the platform operating the markets—Kalshi—is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners. The structure allows bettors to assess varying degrees of dominance by either team within the standard match timeframe.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small group of experts, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors a particular outcome. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable strategy for informed betting, though it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, not guarantees.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Monaco vs Toulouse match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood, based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Monaco vs Toulouse match will be determined by official game statistics, and that result will be used to determine which contracts payout. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Monaco or Toulouse would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to the match schedule or venue could also create volatility. Monitoring sports news, team announcements, and expert analysis will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could shift the market.