TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 4:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Moldova and Slovakia. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, with different thresholds defining a successful outcome. The result is determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates various winning margins in the Moldova vs Slovakia UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 6, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are possible, each corresponding to a specific goal-differential condition. If Moldova wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, that market resolves positively. Similarly, if Slovakia wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, that specific market resolves positively. The resolution occurs after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. All markets are independent, meaning each evaluates its own condition separately. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the difference. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information and adjust prices faster than traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information surfaces.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread in the Moldova vs Slovakia match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective expectations of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to represent the most current assessment of the likely outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market price is a real-time indicator of perceived probability.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Moldova vs Slovakia match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the governing body of the competition. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake.
Several signals could influence the price of this market before Oct 7, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Moldova or Slovakia team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability, coaching changes, or even pre-match analysis from respected sports commentators could all contribute to price movements. Public perception and betting patterns on other platforms may also play a role, influencing traders' expectations.