TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 1:15 AM EST
Polymarket
The 2026 MLB Playoffs American League Division Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees is a best-of-five series, won by the first team to win three games. Each market in this event names a team and a series spread of -1.5 or -2.5 games, and its two outcomes are the named team with that spread (for example, "Rays -1.5") and the other team with the opposite spread (for example, "Yankees +1.5"). A -1.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0 or 3-1, and a -2.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0. If the series is completed, each market will resolve to the named team's outcome if its spread is covered and to the other team's outcome if it is not. If the series is not completed by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, for any reason, including cancellation of the 2026 MLB Playoffs, a market will resolve to the other team's outcome if the other team has already won enough games that the named team can no longer cover the spread (2 games against a -1.5 spread, 1 game against a -2.5 spread). Otherwise, it will resolve to 50-50. Only games completed by that time will be counted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 MLB Playoffs American League Division Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees is a best-of-five series, won by the first team to win three games. Each market in this event names a team and a series spread of -1.5 or -2.5 games, and its two outcomes are the named team with that spread (for example, "Rays -1.5") and the other team with the opposite spread (for example, "Yankees +1.5"). A -1.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0 or 3-1, and a -2.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0. If the series is completed, each market will resolve to the named team's outcome if its spread is covered and to the other team's outcome if it is not. If the series is not completed by October 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, for any reason, including cancellation of the 2026 MLB Playoffs, a market will resolve to the other team's outcome if the other team has already won enough games that the named team can no longer cover the spread (2 games against a -1.5 spread, 1 game against a -2.5 spread). Otherwise, it will resolve to 50-50. Only games completed by that time will be counted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets often incorporate information and analysis not readily available to sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts.
On Polymarket, the price of shares in this market is determined by supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. The higher the price of shares predicting a Rays series win, the more confident the market is in that outcome. Conversely, lower prices suggest less confidence. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for continuous updates to the implied probability as new information becomes available. The current trading volume of $685 indicates the level of interest and activity surrounding the Rays-Yankees series spread.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final series spread between the Rays and the Yankees, as determined by official MLB results. The market will reflect which team wins the series and by how many games, based on the initial spread. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be entitled to a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Numerous events could influence trading in this market leading up to Oct 12, 2026. Unexpected injuries to key players like Aaron Judge or Wander Franco would certainly shift the odds. Strong pitching performances or offensive outbursts in early games could also cause significant price changes. Furthermore, any news regarding changes in team lineups, managerial decisions, or even weather forecasts impacting game conditions could all contribute to market volatility. The overall performance of both teams in the preceding regular season games will also continue to be a factor.