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420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
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37%
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Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 3:10 AM EST
Polymarket
The 2026 MLB Playoffs National League Division Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres is a best-of-five series, won by the first team to win three games. Each market in this event names a team and a series spread of -1.5 or -2.5 games, and its two outcomes are the named team with that spread (for example, "Brewers -1.5") and the other team with the opposite spread (for example, "Padres +1.5"). A -1.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0 or 3-1, and a -2.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0. If the series is completed, each market will resolve to the named team's outcome if its spread is covered and to the other team's outcome if it is not. If the series is not completed by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, for any reason, including cancellation of the 2026 MLB Playoffs, a market will resolve to the other team's outcome if the other team has already won enough games that the named team can no longer cover the spread (2 games against a -1.5 spread, 1 game against a -2.5 spread). Otherwise, it will resolve to 50-50. Only games completed by that time will be counted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 MLB Playoffs National League Division Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres is a best-of-five series, won by the first team to win three games. Each market in this event names a team and a series spread of -1.5 or -2.5 games, and its two outcomes are the named team with that spread (for example, "Brewers -1.5") and the other team with the opposite spread (for example, "Padres +1.5"). A -1.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0 or 3-1, and a -2.5 spread is covered if the named team wins the series 3-0. If the series is completed, each market will resolve to the named team's outcome if its spread is covered and to the other team's outcome if it is not. If the series is not completed by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, for any reason, including cancellation of the 2026 MLB Playoffs, a market will resolve to the other team's outcome if the other team has already won enough games that the named team can no longer cover the spread (2 games against a -1.5 spread, 1 game against a -2.5 spread). Otherwise, it will resolve to 50-50. Only games completed by that time will be counted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s pricing is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Polymarket will shift accordingly. It’s common to see prediction markets outperform sportsbook lines, especially as an event approaches, as new information becomes available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the series spread. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who buy shares in a particular outcome, the higher its price rises, indicating increased confidence. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price, suggesting decreasing confidence. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final series spread between the Brewers and the Padres, as determined by the official MLB results. The market will then settle to reflect whether the actual spread was above or below the threshold established in this market. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding shares in the incorrect outcome will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Brewers or the Padres would likely cause movement. Unexpected pitching changes or shifts in team performance during the regular season leading up to the playoffs could also impact the spread. Furthermore, public sentiment, as reflected in expert analysis and media coverage, can sway trader opinions and therefore the price of shares on Polymarket. Major upsets in other playoff series could also indirectly affect this market by altering overall perceptions of team strength.