What signals or events could move this market between now and resolution?

This market group asks whether any pitcher will throw a perfect game during the 2026 MLB season, including regular season and postseason play. A perfect game occurs when a pitcher completes a game without allowing any baserunner. Resolution depends on official MLB records or credible consensus reporting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical YES/NO logic: any perfect game thrown during the 2026 MLB season (regular or postseason) triggers YES; otherwise NO, with consistent cancellation and timing cutoffs.Primary resolution logic: Official MLB records; credible reporting consensus may serve as secondary source if official determination is unavailable

Core resolution logic:

YES if any pitcher throws a perfect game in any MLB game during the 2026 season (regular season or postseason)
A perfect game is defined as a complete game in which the pitcher allows zero baserunners
NO if the 2026 MLB season is cancelled or postponed after November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET
NO if it cannot be determined whether a perfect game occurred within the defined timeframe
NO if no perfect game is thrown during the 2026 season

Edge cases & clarifications:

Season Cancellation or Delay: If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled entirely or postponed beyond November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to NO regardless of whether a perfect game would have occurred.
Postseason Inclusion: Perfect games thrown in any postseason game (Wild Card, Division Series, League Championship Series, World Series) count toward YES resolution.
Determination Uncertainty: If credible sources cannot confirm whether a perfect game occurred, the market resolves to NO.
Multiple Perfect Games: If more than one perfect game is thrown during the 2026 season, the market still resolves to YES (not a higher payout; binary outcome).

Timing: Resolution occurs after the conclusion of the 2026 MLB season or November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If the season extends beyond that date, the market resolves NO.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve “Yes” if any player throws a Perfect Game in any game during the 2026 MLB season (including postseason). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Perfect Game” is achieved when a pitcher throws a complete game without allowing a baserunner. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined if a Perfect Game occurred within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If any pitcher records a perfect game in any game during the 2026 Pro Baseball season (regular season and playoffs), then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injuries to top pitchers, particularly those with a history of near-perfect games, would likely decrease the probability. Rule changes affecting pitching or defensive strategies could also influence the odds. Strong pitching performances early in the 2026 season, even if not perfect games, could increase optimism and drive up the price. Conversely, a high rate of no-hitters without a completed perfect game could lower confidence. Any news regarding pitcher health, performance, or rule changes will be closely watched by traders in this market.

MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season?

Markets

Perfect Game