TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 4:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match in the Serbian SuperLiga between Mladost Lucani and Beograd. The result is determined by the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time. The event covers three possible outcomes: a win for either team or a tie.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Mladost Lucani vs Beograd professional Serbian SuperLiga soccer match scheduled for October 12, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Mladost Lucani, a win for Beograd, or a tie. If the match ends with either team victorious within regular time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the match concludes with an equal score, the Tie market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s guidelines. The event specifically excludes extra time and penalty shootouts from consideration in determining the result.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the predictions of many individuals. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses. It's common to see differences in implied probabilities, especially as new information emerges leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Mladost Lucani vs Beograd match, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and increased selling pressure lowering it. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to accurately represent the collective prediction of the market.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mladost Lucani vs Beograd match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will determine which outcome—a win for Mladost Lucani, a win for Beograd, or a tie—actually occurred during the match. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift the perceived probabilities. Major upsets in other matches involving these teams, or even broader shifts in public sentiment, could also play a role. Furthermore, large trades by individual participants on Kalshi could cause noticeable price movements, especially if the volume is substantial relative to the current trading activity.