TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 2:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various margin-based outcomes for an upcoming soccer match between Mjallby and IC Escaldes. It focuses on the difference in goals scored by either team at the end of regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The resolution depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential.
The event encompasses four distinct outcome scenarios based on the goal differential in the Mjallby versus IC Escaldes Conference League soccer match scheduled for October 15, 2026. Each scenario defines a specific margin by which either team must win after 90 minutes of regular play, including stoppage time but excluding extra time or penalty phases. If Mjallby wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the corresponding markets resolve positively for Mjallby. Conversely, if IC Escaldes secures a victory by more than 1.5 goals, or more than 2.5 goals, the relevant markets resolve positively for IC Escaldes. All outcomes are evaluated solely based on the final score at the conclusion of regular time, with no consideration given to post-match events such as extra time, penalty kicks, or any official league affiliations. The rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets bears no official connection to the governing league or its associated entities.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on models and internal analyses, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the implied probability from this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate differing opinions on the likely outcome of the Mjallby vs IC Escaldes match. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual result.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and opinions. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe IC Escaldes will win by a certain margin, the price of contracts reflecting that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a fair and efficient market for predicting the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official final result of the Mjallby vs IC Escaldes match, specifically the actual goal difference. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the final spread. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 15, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, suspensions, or changes in coaching staff for either Mjallby or IC Escaldes could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions at the match venue could also play a role. Furthermore, any updates on team form, tactical approaches, or public sentiment expressed by analysts and fans could contribute to price movements. Major shifts in trading volume, even without specific news, can also indicate changing market sentiment and cause the price to fluctuate.